Saturday, May 5, 2012

A Canadian Public Safety study found re-offense rates reach 24 percent after 15 years of release.

TRUTH: But, depends on how it is used..

Far too many folks try to use this Canadian Study (Sex Offender Recidivism: A Simple Question 2003-2004) showing 24% recidivism to refute the Dep't of Justice study which shows 3.5% recidivism rates.

Now the truth as to why it cannot be compared.

First the Canadian study is a Meta Study obtaining its input from other studies, and thats where the problem starts.
A review of Table-1 (pgs 2-4) (A list of the studies used as input) will reveal, 5 of the 10 studies used, include "Charges and Convictions" in their recidivism numbers, that alone will raise the output percentage. Then one of the studies uses "Investigations" of sex crimes, in addition to "Charges and Convictions" again raising their final recidivism percentages; its mathematically impossible to compensate for that.

Secondly, the Canadian meta study is using TWO studies from the 1980s, before any known therapy existed, obviously a high recidivism rate would be expected from that them. I'm sure if you combined "Charges and Convictions" in the DOJ study the final recidivism rate would be higher, but not everyone charged is convicted; in-between the two is where justice and truth is applied.

Accordingly, given the padding (as it were) of the input in the Canadian study, it can only arrive at a higher recidivism rate. This is like comparing rocks to eggs, they simply do not computer!

PS: Also, they did not follow folks for 15 years, each study followed folks for a different number of years, from 2 to 23

Studies of Value - No Source Links

April 2012:

(Mis)educating the Public about Sex Offenders: The Government as a Myth Maker. Tamara Rice Lave, University of Miami School of Law

Sexual Offender; Sorting out Myth from Truth. Dr. Eric Imhof

Friday, May 4, 2012

Children and young people (13 through 19) are at a greater risk of ending up on the registry than be harmed by someone on the registry.


Children and teenagers are the fastest growing group of folks being CHARGED with situations, childish pranks and teenage issues, including viewing child porn (i.e., sexting nude photos of themselves), which may ultimately require them to register as sex offenders. See "Study: Many sex offenders are kids themselves" "Juveniles are 36% of all sex offenders who victimize children. Seven out of eight are at least 12 years old, and 93% are boys, says the study by the Crimes Against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire."; and "Juveniles crowd Michigan sex offender registry"; and "Should Teens be Prosecuted for Having Sex?."

Fact: 93% of new sex offenses against minors are by someone known to the minor; their family, friends or acquaintances. Source: Dep't of Justice: Victim/Offender Relationships Table  pg-36   "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994." NCJ198281.  Given that DOJ fact, and that, there is no way that 93% of the families, friends and acquaintances of all victims, are on the sex offender registry. Accordingly, the offender coming from the 93% would not be on the registry, instead living in society.

Alternate Proof:
The Center for Disease Control, Youth Risk Behavior study (Trends in the Prevalence of Selected Risk Behaviors and Obesity for All Students National YRBS: 1991—2009. page-2 ), which shows, that, 46% of kids in high school have had some form of sexual contact; and it has been ongoing. Then using Census figures (17.27million for high school Fig-1), that means over 8,000,000 high school kids nationally are having some form of sexual contact. And that contact is most likely with another high school kid.

Hence, if Prosecutors were to convict them, and require them to register, certainly there would be more juveniles (high school ages 13-18 or so) added to the registry than adults (Currently, combined over 700,000 NCMEC Map (11-2011)). Accordingly, 'children and young people aged 13 through 19' are at a greater risk of ending up on the registry, because they are having some form of sexual contact and admit it. So sayeth the CDC Youth Risk Behavior study.

Pictures and Other Graphics for Blog

April 2012:

Blog Overview

This is whats its all about: Truth and its Authority, and Factoids ("something that looks like a fact, could be a fact, but in fact is not a fact").

Should anyone have something they wish us to research and post please e-mail us and we will do our best.

Also, suggestions for improving blog are always welcomed.

For now, have a great day & a better tomorrow.