Thursday, June 7, 2012

Complete List of Truths and Factoids


Click Truths, Questions, Factoids, Opinion for Complete Explanation

A RSOL and eAdvocate Collaboration:
CONTACTING CONGRESS:CONGRESSIONAL TUTORIALS:
TRUTHS:
QUESTIONS:
FACTOIDS: Part FACTOID -and- Part TRUTH: OPINIONS: DOCUMENTING HISTORY: IMPORTANT COMMENTS FOUND IN NEWS ARTICLES & RESEARCH: TRANSCRIPTS: More coming as time permits.. For now have a great day and a better tomorrow. eAdvocate

Saturday, June 2, 2012

96.5% of new sex offenses are committed by someone who has never before committed a sex offense!

TRUTH:

Many folks have disputed this claim, saying, you need to ask victims to get the truth!

Today when sex offenders are released from prison, back into the community, they are required to register with their local police. Legislatures and the general community believe that, new sex offenses are committed by these former offenders. That for the most part is a myth, and now we can present some hard facts to prove our claim.

To make sense of this issue we searched for a "Victim Study" which showed the number of offenses according to victims. The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) has a report called "Criminal Victimization in the United States, 1994," published in May of 1997. In 1994 victims reported 432,750 incidents.

Although that report has later versions, we used 1994 to be consistent with the latest sex offender recidivism statistics of the same year, "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994, also published by the DOJ in November 2003.

The DOJ reported 3.5% of those released sex offenders were RECONVICTED for another sex crime within 3 years following their release. (DOJ Pg-24)

Accordingly, victims reported 432,750 incidents. 3.5% of sex offenders released committed another sex offense (recidivated within 3-years of release).

The math: (100% - 3.5% = 96.5%) 96.5% of 432,750 = 417,603 committed by someone other than a former sex offender released from prison.

What more needs to be said?

Important Note:
We do recognize that the 3.5% reconviction rate is over 3-years. However, when switching between rearrest, reconviction, recidivates, recidivism etc. all this muddys the waters and requires a careful read of what is being said.

Part of the explanation is, when a person "recidivates" -that act whenever committed-, is rarely taken to court in the same year, reconviction -if any- would more likely be in the next year. Also, most recidivism (actual acts) occurs in the first year or so following release from prison. (DOJ pg-16). We also didn't feel a simple divide by 3 was fair either, so we just erred on the side of caution, and used 3.5% as an yearly figure.


Who are the 96.5%?
What is their relationshionship, if any, to the victim?

The DOJ, in the above study, found out. Most are related to the victim or within the victim's daily circle of activities. The DOJ reviewed 73,116 cases and found the following, but it is easier to see in our chart (Click on it for a larger chart):

Notice the percentages, at the top of the chart, break down into "All Offenses," "Offenses Against Adults," and "Offenses Against Minors." As to those under 18 (minors) 93.3% of the offenses are committed by family members, friends and acquaintances. Lawmakers need to wake up and stop claiming and enacting "Stranger Danger" legislation! Stop the false hysteria!

eAdvocate

Saturday, May 5, 2012

A Canadian Public Safety study found re-offense rates reach 24 percent after 15 years of release.

TRUTH: But, depends on how it is used..

Far too many folks try to use this Canadian Study (Sex Offender Recidivism: A Simple Question 2003-2004) showing 24% recidivism to refute the Dep't of Justice study which shows 3.5% recidivism rates.

Now the truth as to why it cannot be compared.

First the Canadian study is a Meta Study obtaining its input from other studies, and thats where the problem starts.
A review of Table-1 (pgs 2-4) (A list of the studies used as input) will reveal, 5 of the 10 studies used, include "Charges and Convictions" in their recidivism numbers, that alone will raise the output percentage. Then one of the studies uses "Investigations" of sex crimes, in addition to "Charges and Convictions" again raising their final recidivism percentages; its mathematically impossible to compensate for that.

Secondly, the Canadian meta study is using TWO studies from the 1980s, before any known therapy existed, obviously a high recidivism rate would be expected from that them. I'm sure if you combined "Charges and Convictions" in the DOJ study the final recidivism rate would be higher, but not everyone charged is convicted; in-between the two is where justice and truth is applied.

Accordingly, given the padding (as it were) of the input in the Canadian study, it can only arrive at a higher recidivism rate. This is like comparing rocks to eggs, they simply do not computer!

PS: Also, they did not follow folks for 15 years, each study followed folks for a different number of years, from 2 to 23