"Moving Toward Facts and Empirical Evidence"

---

Cites from SMART Office Research Reports

Incidence and Prevalence of Sexual Offending by Jane Wiseman	Etiology of Adult Sexual Offending by Susan Faupel, M.S.W.
Adult Sex Offender Typologies by Dominique A. Simons	Internet-Facilitated Sexual Offending by Michael Seto, Ph.D.
Adult Sex Offender Recidivism byRoger Przybylski	Sex Offender Risk Assessment by Kevin Baldwin, Ph.D.
Effectiveness of Treatment for Adult Sex Offenders by Roger Przybylski	Sex Offender Management Strategies by Christopher Lobanov-Rostovsky

Evidence Based: "Despite the intuitive value of using science to guide decision making, laws and policies designed to combat sexual offending are often introduced or enacted in the absence of empirical support. However, there is little question that both public safety and the efficient use of public resources would be enhanced if sex offender management strategies were based on evidence of effectiveness rather than other factors." Source: Adult Sex Offender Typologies

Additional notes or comments

---

Cite from Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994

Recidivism: "As part of their study, (Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994) Langan, Schmitt, and Durose (2003) conducted a comparative analysis of recidivism among sex offenders and non-sex offenders. Findings were based on the 3-year postrelease offending of 9,691 sex offenders and 262,420 non-sex offenders released from prison in 1994. The analysis revealed that once released, the sex offenders had a lower overall rearrest rate than non-sex offenders (43 percent compared to 68 percent), but their sex crime rearrest rate was four times higher than the rate for non-sex offenders (5.3 percent compared to 1.3 percent). Similar patterns are consistently found in other studies that compare sex offender and non-sex offender recidivism (see, e.g., Sample & Bray, 2003; Hanson, Scott, & Steffy, 1995)." Source: Recidivism Rates: All Sex Offenders

Note: Some times percentages alone do not tell the real story:
5.3% -v- 1.3% lets translate % to actual numbers 5.3% = 517 sex offenses (victims) and 1.3% = 3,328 sex offenses (victims) all occurring over the same 3-year period. Non sex offenders being more dangerous to the community than are former sex offenders. And, this evidence shows that lawmakers have known this since at least 2003, and have done ZERO about it. Residency laws should govern ALL NON SOs on parole/probation/supervised release because they are more dangerous to the community than former registered citizens.

---

Cite from Juveniles who commit sex offenses against minors Bulletin

Juvenile Offenders: Key findings from this 2009 Bulletin include the following: Juveniles account for more than one-third (35.6 percent) of those known to police to have committed sex offenses against minors.

Additional comments: In a 2012 news article they cite the same 2009 Bulletin: Dealing with child-on-child sex abuse not one size fits all Recent high-profile cases of child sex abuse have roused national revulsion against the adults who perpetrated them. Rarely mentioned is the sobering statistic that more than one-third of the sexual abuse of America's children is committed by other minors. ... Basic data about child-on-child sex abuse is detailed in an authoritative, Justice Department-sponsored analysis of crime data from 29 states. Conducted by three prominent researchers, the 2009 analysis found that juveniles accounted for 35.6% of the people identified by police as having committed sex offenses against minors. ...

---

Cites from several well known sources:

Myths and Facts about sex offenders and offenses:

CSOM: Myths and Facts About Sex Offenders
Corrections.com: Fact Sheet: What You Need to Know About Sex Offenders
California Attorney General: Facts about Sex Offenders
Parents for Megans Law: Statistics - Offenders
Scientific America: Once a Sex Offender, Always a Sex Offender? Maybe not.
RSOL: Ten Myths about Sex Offenders
DOJ NSOWP: Facts and Statistics
Sex Offender Treatment.org: Implications for Treatment and Public Policy
New Person Ministries: MYTHS AND FACTS ABOUT SEX OFFENDERS
OnceFallen Myths: The Foundation for Sex Offender Laws

---

Cites from Wikipedia a well known source:

High Profile crimes which led to sex offender laws:

2005: eAdvocates Chart of High Profile Crimes leading to sex offender laws
1981: Adam Walsh
1995: Jimmy Ryce

2003: Dru Sjodin

---

Some realty sites describe neighborhoods’ racial and ethnic makeup; is that legal?

7-20-2014 National:

When you shop online for a home, some Web sites let you specify the characteristics of the community where you want to live. Maybe you’re looking for excellent schools, low crime rates, affordable prices and low property taxes.

But should you also be able to search for a home based on the racial or ethnic composition of the neighborhood? Should real estate sites supply detailed information on the percentages of African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, Caucasians and people of mixed race in the immediate area?

Some civil rights advocates cite the Fair Housing Act and say absolutely not: Connecting racial data with home sale transactions is barred by federal law, they argue, whether it’s done by a real estate agent or posted on a Web site.

But companies whose sites offer neighborhood-level racial, ethnic, linguistic and similar demographic details strongly disagree. Much of their data, they say, come from government sources such as the Census Bureau. It’s all public information and already available to anyone who makes an effort to find it, so how could its dissemination in connection with property searches possibly violate federal law?

Controversy over all this bubbled up last week when the head of the National Fair Housing Alliance — an umbrella group that represents more than 200 state and local civil rights organizations — said the alliance is investigating the practices of online search firms that have real estate tie-ins, whether as brokerages or as referral-generating services for realty agents.

Is the April 2014 BJS Recidivism report what we have been waiting for?

4-24-2014 Washington DC:

Yesterday we received notice that the BJS published a new recidivism report: "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010" and we let folks know about the report, but we have received a few e-mails questioning the report; is it what we have been waiting for?

Before we get into that report lets look back, these are the studies we have known about:

1) "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983" Published 4-1989
2) "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994" Published 6-2002.
3) "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994" Published in 11-2003.

Reports 1 and 2 are reports addressing recidivism for all types of crimes, while report 3 is specific to sex offenders and contains extensive information about sex offenders. However, reports 1 and 2 do cover sex offenses but scantily.

The BJS report released yesterday "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010" is more like historical reports 1 and 2. But, the new report does go further into sex offender information than did reports 1 and 2.

Clearly this does signal a change by the BJS, one major change is, the followup period 3 years to 5 years, but even with that it does not cover sex offenders to the extent that report 3 did. Only time will tell if we are to see another recidivism report extensively covering sex offenders as report 3 did.

Now lets see what the new recidivism report does cover, or omit, some things.

Failure to Register offenses:

pg-22: Rape or sexual assault includes (1) forcible intercourse (vaginal, anal, or oral) with a female or male, (2) forcible sodomy or penetration with a foreign object (sometimes called “deviate sexual assault”), (3) forcible or violent sexual acts not involving intercourse with an adult or minor, (4) nonforcible sexual acts with a minor (such as statutory rape or incest with a minor), and (5) nonforcible sexual acts with someone unable to give legal or factual consent because of mental or physical defect or intoxication.

pg-23: Other public order offenses are those that violate the peace or order of the community or threaten the public health or safety through unacceptable conduct, interference with governmental authority, or the violation of civil rights or liberties. The category also includes probation or parole violation, escape, obstruction of justice, court offenses, nonviolent sex offenses, commercialized vice, family offenses, liquor law violations, bribery, invasion of privacy, disorderly conduct, contributing to the delinquency of a minor, and other miscellaneous or unspecified offenses.

What types of nonviolent sex offenses are they speaking of? And is it possible they are including "Failure to Register (FTR)" types of crimes. FTR is considered a sex offense in one state that we know of, and possibly another. Since the start of FTR's we have wondered how, if at all, they will be accounted for, and if FTRs will mess up recidivism statistics.

Most likely to be arrested for, based on commitment offense:,

pg-8: This general pattern of recidivism was maintained across the 5-year follow-up period. A year after release from prison, the recidivism rate of prisoners sentenced for a property offense (50.3 %) was higher than the rates for drug (42.3%), public order (40.1%), and violent (38.4%) offenders. Among violent offenders, the annual recidivism rates of prisoners sentenced for homicide or sexual assault were lower than those sentenced for assault or robbery across the 5-year period.

pg-8: Table-8 Recidivism of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and time from release to first arrest.

Easily missed is, that the Table-8 (Rape/sexual assault) does not tell us "what their first arrest was for," same crime as commitment or another type of crime? Arrest does not necessarily mean a conviction. And the percent shown is of ONLY Rape/sexual assault cases, not total released prisoners.

Rearrests:

pg-9: Among all released inmates, an estimated 1.7% were arrested for rape or sexual assault, and 23.0% were arrested for assault. During the 5-year follow-up period, the majority (58.0%) of released prisoners were arrested for a public order offense.

Finally we see something to give us a approximate number, estimated 1.7% of all released inmates (404,638 pg-1 of report) = 6,878 were rearrested, not necessarily convicted. But it was some kind of sex offense. Here is where we begin wondering if the rearrest offenses was for "Failure to register" (Considered a sex offense in at least one state). see earlier FTR discussion.

Recidivism:

pg-14: Other measures of recidivism
Conviction—Classifies persons as a recidivist if the court has determined the individual committed a new crime. An estimated 45.2% of inmates had an arrest within 3 years of release that resulted in a conviction in criminal court, and 55.4% of inmates had an arrest within 5 years that resulted in a conviction.

Recidivism of sex offenders is unlikely a goal of this new report. Hence, this writer feels we should expect another more telling report covering sex offenders likened to "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994" Published in 11-2003.

For now have a great day and a better tomorrow.
eAdvocate